In mid-July, Inter Miami CF signed the seven-time Ballon d'Or winner and World Cup Champion Lionel Messi, instantly transforming the bottom-feeding squad into contenders. Since then, all Messi has done had led Miami to its first championship since joining Major League Soccer, as it secured the Leagues Cup in mid-August.
Suddenly, Miami is a legit challenger for the MLS Cup. All because of Messi, who has single-handedly changed the way we view a single player's impact on the game. Before Messi's move to Miami, few would've argued that one player could have the power to flip a team's fortune in game like fútbol.
And yet, that's exactly what Messi has done.
So, the question for sports bettors everywhere, of course, is how do we cash in on the Messi Experience?
Miami has won all eight games since Messi joined the club. He's scored in the first seven of his games. Betting on Messi to score has become something of a near sure-thing bet at this point.
Unsurprisingly, sportsbooks report that betting activity on Messi scoring nearly matches bets on the Miami game results.
So, that's your first piece of advice: Betting on Messi to score is a pretty good bet. He does it a lot.
But let's look at his impact on Miami's statistical fortunes overall, shall we?
In June, before Messi joined the club, Miami had 200-1 odds to win the MLS Cup. When he joined, Miami was in last place in the Eastern Conference, with just 18 points. Still his mere presence dropped those odds to 33-1 before he had even played a game.
Now? Now Miami is tied with LAFC for the second-best odds to win the MLS Cup at +600.
He single-handedly flipped the script for that team, both in the odds and on the pitch.
So, what does that mean for bettors? Well, like we said before, betting against Messi isn't exactly advisable. But how far can he possibly take this squad? We're really in uncharted territory here, not only in fútbol, but sports in general.
There may not be another example in any sport of a single player transforming a doormat team into a championship contender, mid-season, overnight, with just his presence alone. It's remarkable, a statistical outlier, great drama certainly.
But at some point there has to be a regression toward the mean. Right? Surely, there has to be. That's what a smart, statistically sophisticated bettor would say.
The Cinderella season Miami has been enjoying can't possibly last. Basic statistics dictate that.
But... are you really going to bet against Messi at this point? Really?