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Some betting tips for March Madness

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Is there a better sporting event to wager on than March Madness? The Super Bowl is ridiculously fun and there’s a ton of entertaining prop bets. But March Madness is weeks of, well, madness – crazy, sudden-death game.
And you can look like a star if you pick some 15 Seed to make a Cinderella run.

Add in all the office betting pools on brackets and it's hard to beat college basketball's free-for-all playoff.

So how can you get an upper hand on the action? Glad you asked. We have a few tips. But only a few. This is March Madness, remember. Anything can happen - and usually does.

1 Seeds are 1 Seeds for a reason

Since the mid-1980s, more than 64% of championships have been won by a 1 Seed. So look, it's awesome to pick a 12 Seed to upset, but don't put 'em in your Final Four. Just don't, okay? And certainly don't pick one to win it all. It's just not likely to happen.

Notice we said likely. Again, this is March Madness. Anything can happen.

The Regular Season is a good barometer of playoff success. Not great.

A couple of critical stats to keep in mind:

  • More than 42% of one-loss regular season teams have gone on to make the Final Four.
  • 7 of 20 undefeated teams to enter March Madness have gone on to win it all.

So, the regular season record matters. It shows who is good and often times who is good in the regular season is also good in the playoffs.

But, the joy of March Madness is its one-and-done format. For a team to succeed it has to be on its A-game every game or its out. That makes betting on a team with a good win-loss record appealing, but no sure thing.

A couple of statistical trends to keep in mind

Roughly speaking, about once every couple of years, you'll see a 14 Seed upset a 3 Seed. You want to be the person who picks that right. You'll look like a psychic.

Also, beware of 5 Seeds. A 5 Seed has never won the tourney. That's likely because 5 Seeds are kinda stuck in the middle, decent squads who can maybe pull off an upset, but not enough hype to really get rolling.

Champions are balanced

You want a good metric for picking tourney champions? Look at a team's efficiency rankings, overall and for offense and defense. Efficient teams more often than not win Final Fours.

And you don't want to pick teams that are efficient overall and efficient on one side of are ball. You want to pick teams that are highly ranked in all three. You have a good chance of finding your champion there... if you want to dig into all the stats and stuff. That's not exactly a fun way to approach your bracket.

But it's a more logical strategy than picking your buddy's alma mater.

Watch where games are being played

In just about every sport we talk about the importance of the home-court advantage. You don't hear that as much in March Madness, what with teams playing all over the place. But sharp betters should keep their eyes peeled for teams that are playing near their campuses. Those teams are going to more often than not have an advantage with the number of fans in the stands.

You don't have to be a psychologist to know that more people in the building pulling for one team is gonna have an effect on the refs and fire up the favored squad. Don't ignore the location of the games, especially in the early rounds.

When in doubt, look at the Coaches

Coaching matters in college basketball. When games are tight, their adjustments can make an enormous difference. That's why a team like Gonzaga could be so dangerous this year. The Zags, unlike in previous years, have not had a good season. It's been a 1 Seed under coach Mark Few, but won't be this year. It'll be low, like an 11 Seed.

But Few knows how to coach in the tourney. His experience could be the difference in a tight game. That's why Tom Izzo has been so successful at Michigan State. He's been able to take teams that have underachieved during the regular season and blast 'em through bracket.

Look at where the games are being played but look at who is coaching too. That'll give you a leg up. Well, maybe. It's March Madness. You could make all the right calls and still end up with a busted bracket. That's just how it goes.

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