After 50,000 simulations of each regular season week and playoffs, the program believes that the Kansas City Chiefs are most likely to win the Super Bowl once again.

With the 2024-2025 NFL season beginning next week, Sportradar implemented its AI technology to predict the results for each team this year. Using over 50,000 simulations for every week of the regular season along with the playoffs as well, the sports technology company found that the Kansas City Chiefs are most likely to win the Super Bowl come February, cementing its third straight championship.

The Chiefs would be the first team in NFL history to complete the “three-peat” and could have an argument for being one of the greatest dynasties the sport has ever seen. 

It is not surprising to see the Chiefs be favored by the AI model, as Patrick Mahomes is considered one of the best quarterbacks to ever step foot on a football field and has found championship-winning success with a roster worse than what he will have this season. Last year, Mahomes arguably didn’t have one talented wide receiver around him until Rashee Rice broke out in the second half, as the Chiefs were mainly carried by Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and young running back Isaiah Pacheco. 

This offseason, Kansas City management ensured this would not be an issue for 2024-2025, signing Hollywood Brown in free agency and drafting Xavier Worthy in the first round of the NFL Draft to add speed and athleticism to the wide receiver group. In training camp, Worthy has already received buzz as Mahomes’ next favorite weapon, but Brown unfortunately suffered a leg injury that will keep him out of the team’s week one matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. 

Regarding Baltimore, the Ravens were one of the teams the Chiefs edged out in the AI model to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City emerged as the champion in 7,105 instances, indicating a 14.2% probability, slightly higher than the San Francisco 49ers at 12.6% and Baltimore at 8.0%. 

The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl in the previous season but lost to the Chiefs in an overtime battle that many believe San Francisco could’ve won by executing even one or two plays better down the stretch. Whether it be a failed block on Chris Jones that would’ve led to a touchdown or failing to capitalize on holding the Chiefs to three points through the first half, the Niners had ample opportunity to claim its first Super Bowl since 1994. 

The Ravens made it to the AFC Championship game last season, but like the Niners it squandered opportunities to defeat Kansas City throughout the game. Wide receiver Zay Flowers fumbled the football through the end zone on a would-be touchdown, but resulted in a touchback for the Chiefs. Baltimore’s defense held the Chiefs’ offense to even less points than the Niners did, but still couldn’t overcome the magic of Mahomes and Kansas City’s playoff experience. 

According to Sportradar’s model, Kansas City (15.1%) is projected to be the most likely to achieve 10 wins first as well, followed by San Francisco (10.1%), Baltimore (7.7%), the Detroit Lions (6.4%) and the Cincinnati Bengals (6.3%). Teams that reach 10 wins have a 95.3% chance of making the playoffs based on NFL history. 

Among the 12 teams that have never won a pro football championship, the AI predicts that Detroit (6.6%) is most likely to end its drought, followed by Cincinnati (6.0%), the Buffalo Bills (5.0%), the Houston Texans (4.9%) and the Atlanta Falcons (2.6%).

The Detroit Lions may pose the toughest test to the 49ers’ hopes of returning to the Super Bowl and avenging its loss from last February. The Lions are coming off a NFC Championship appearance where it led the Niners 24-7 going into halftime. From there, however, San Francisco outscored the Lions 27-7, taking advantage of failed attempts by Detroit to solidify its victory and demonstrating its playoff inexperience. 

Now, though, the Lions are hungry to make it to the Super Bowl and retained its entire coaching staff this offseason after expecting to lose both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to head coaching positions. 

The Bengals will be returning quarterback Joe Burrow who missed much of last season with a hand/wrist injury and managed to bring back wide receivers Tee Huggins and Ja’Marr Chase despite contract disputes during training camp. 

Cincinnati is one of the most popular teams to make the Super Bowl as predicted by NFL experts, as the Bengals are the only team in recent history to defeat Mahomes in the playoffs. If Burrow can stay healthy for the whole year and the Bengals can feature even an average defense, the franchise could prove that its 6% odds to win its first Super Bowl are far too low. 

The Texans’ low odds are somewhat surprising after the team made it to the AFC Divisional round in quarterback CJ Stroud’s rookie year and amongst a number of injuries to key contributors. Houston’s offensive line was in shambles last season while wide receiver Tank Dell went down midway through the season with a leg injury. 

Now, the team will see Dell make his return and also added the likes of Danielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon this offseason to create a Super Bowl-caliber roster. While the team is still relatively new to being a contender, it has already proven it can compete with the elite tier of the NFL and should only continue to see improvement from its young stars while being led by second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans. 

The NFL season will begin this week as operators and oddsmakers are preparing for a flurry of activity from users around the country as the most popular sport in the US kicks off its new year. Even companies such as Sportsradar are attempting to provide customers with possible outcomes and data generated by programs like the AI tool used to create the odds listed above.

Within a NFL season, though, truly anything can happen and sometimes the most unexpected outcomes can seem obvious come playoff time. While the Chiefs are an easy selection to return to the Super Bowl once again, a “three-peat” has never been completed in NFL history and the talent pool of the league only continues to grow with each new year.