As the three-time MVP continues to try and carry his team solo, Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic have all risen up odds boards to claim the award.
Ahead of regular season play beginning for the NBA, many around the sport believed Nikola was the favorite to take home his fourth Most Valuable Player (MVP) award following a dominant 2023-2024 that saw the Denver Nuggets make it to the second round of the playoffs. To begin the new season, however, Denver has struggled out of the gate with a 2-2 record that included needing overtime to defeat the Brooklyn Nets, a team that is expected to compete for the first overall selection in the 2025 NBA Draft. The poor early showing has affected Jokic’s odds in the MVP race on William Hill, as he has dropped to fourth on William Hill at +700, behind other talents like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Tatum are part of the two most impressive teams to begin the season in the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics, respectively, with Tatum coming off his first championship in 2023-2024. Gilgeous-Alexander leads in odds currently at +275, while Doncic and Tatum are listed close behind at +300 and +375, as Doncic made his first Finals appearance last season in the loss to Boston. Jokic is still tied for the league-lead in points per game (PPG) at 31.5 with Philadelphia 76ers point guard Tyrese Maxey and continues to put together impressive numbers by adding 12.3 rebounds per game (RPG) and 9.3 assists per game (APG). While the incredible figures represent why Jokic is seen as the best player in the league by many, the trio of stars listed ahead of him on William Hill have started off the season hot as well.
The Oklahoma City point guard has averaged only 26.0 PPG through four games, but has added 7.5 RPG and 6.0 APG to go along with 2.5 steals and 1.5 blocks. He has struggled at shooting from three so far, only generating a 27.3% shooting accuracy from behind the arc, but is still seen as the top playmaker on a young, but hungry, Thunder squad. The franchise reached the second round of the Playoffs last season in its first attempt at postseason play with the current group, and chose to add more depth as a result of its efforts. Oklahoma City traded for guard Alex Caruso from the Chicago Bulls to add more defense and also signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to help with rebounding and interior defense.
Caruso has begun his Thunder tenure a tad slow, only averaging 1.3 PPG and shooting just 11.3% from deep, but is more relied upon to disrupt opposing guards and let scorers such as Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren handle the offense. Hartenstein unfortunately suffered a small fracture in his hand that will cost him the first five-six weeks of the season, but the Thunder seem fine to wait for its newest addition as the team has gotten off to a 4-0 start. At +275, it will be difficult for bettors to find a better time to wager on Gilgeous-Alexander before he eventually finds his shooting stroke from three and approaches 30 PPG instead of the mid-20’s.
Doncic has used his first Finals appearance to catapult himself into the top contention for the MVP award, a prize he’s been close to in the past but has yet to win. Placing him second already is a tad surprising on William Hill’s end, though, as Doncic has been slow to start the year with just 26.3 PPG. He has added 9.3 RPG and 7.0 APG, but this is a player who has routinely averaged close to 30 PPG during his career, so putting him above Jokic and Tatum comes off a little early from the operator. The Mavericks did add alternative scoring in the offseason to help alleviate some of the pressure placed upon its star player in the form of Klay Thomson, who is shooting 42.5% from three through the first four games of the season while adding 16.5 PPG of his own.
While this could be a detriment to Doncic’s chances of winning the MVP trophy, it's fair to assume the 25-year old phenom doesn’t mind having the former Golden State Warrior on board, figuring the Mavericks have begun the season with a 3-1 record. The franchise lost to Boston in just five games, but Doncic was injured for the majority of the series and the Celtics roster is possibly the best in all of basketball. Despite the result of last year’s Finals, Dallas is still second in odds behind Oklahoma City in odds to win the Western Conference at +575, with the Thunder sitting atop at +250. With Doncic’s odds of +300 to win MVP, bettors may not get a better number than what is currently being offered, but it is also possible the Nuggets begin to improve and Jokic knocks Doncic down to offer more favorable odds.
Tatum’s case for the award could possibly be the best of the four players covered, averaging 30.2 PPG to kick off what is appearing as a career year for the former Duke product. During his tenure with Boston up to this point, many around the NBA have questioned whether Tatum is actually capable of being a franchise star and if he has just been a beneficiary of talented rosters. Even following his first title win last spring, fans and analysts praised Tatum’s teammate, Jaylen Brown, for winning the Finals MVP award, ignoring his own efforts throughout the Playoffs. Adding on to this doubt, Tatum was benched while playing for the US Men’s Basketball team in the Paris Olympics, which led to more critics hopping on the anti-Tatum bandwagon.
He has been able to use these setbacks as motivation, however, and is scoring in numerous ways to help lead the Celtics to a 4-1 start. Boston seems primed to return to the Finals in 2024-2025, but will need Tatum to continue his blazing start into the Playoffs with a loaded Eastern Conference. Along with expected contenders in the New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks, the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic appear ready for a deep postseason run as well. The stretch of competition Boston will face in this year’s postseason should come off much more difficult than the somewhat simple path it saw in last season’s Playoffs. While no title should ever be doubted, the Celtics faced three straight teams that were dealing with injuries to its star players, leading Boston to an overall dominant Playoff record of 16-3, and losing no more than one game in each round.
If Tatum can win the MVP award this season, it would put to rest any doubts as to which Celtics player is the leader of the franchise, and should push Boston towards a second straight title after not winning the Championship since 2008. The 26-year old star has seemingly hit his prime, and will now use the motivation garnered in the offseason to reach new heights in his own career as he continues to build a Hall of Fame worthy resume since being drafted third overall in 2017 by the Celtics.
