The market isn't quite as deep as it's been in years past, but Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and Max Fried headline a list of stars that could make a switch this offseason.
As the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrated its second World Series victory in five years, the questions surrounding how the loss would affect the New York Yankees didn’t end once the final out was recorded. Heading into the offseason, New York will be pressured to find a way to bring back star outfielder Juan Soto, who the team acquired from the San Diego Padres in an offseason deal that sent a number of key prospects back to the Padres in return for what was a one-year rental at the time.
If the Yankees are able to convince Soto to return, the trade will automatically be seen as a win for New York, as the team will have Soto committed for what should be a 10-year, or possibly even longer, contract. In the event the 26-year old star chooses to depart for a new franchise, the Yankees would then be left with a lineup that failed to produce consistently outside of Soto and Aaron Judge. The teams lining up to recruit Soto this winter represents what would be a terrible public image for New York, as the main competitors are its cross-town rival New York Mets and the team it just lost the World Series to, the Dodgers.
The Dodgers have shown the ability to sign essentially any superstar it desires, as displayed by the recent acquisitions of Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the 2021 offseason signing of Freddie Freeman. Without much retort from those around the league, Los Angeles has become one of the most respected franchises in all of baseball and an envy of many stars currently playing for other ball clubs. The factor working against signing Soto is his agent, Scott Boras, who the Dodgers have purposely avoided working with in recent years. No one of the Dodgers roster as of right now is a Boras client, mainly due to the fierce negotiating Boras will partake in on behalf of his clients. It's the reason other MLB teams also choose to avoid players signed under his agency, but also why Boras has become the most successful agent in MLB history.
On DraftKings, Los Angeles has odds of +650 to sign Soto this offseason, listed behind the Yankees and Mets which stand at -225 and +380, respectively. While the Dodgers will constantly be linked to any big name available, it remains unlikely the franchise pursues Soto after passing on Boras clients in recent years that would have played a significant role in helping the team. Soto is a better player than any of the names Boras has worked with in the past, but that shouldn’t play enough of a role that Los Angeles diverts from its offseason plans.
The Mets will most likely make the biggest push for Soto, as the team has over $150m of dead money and pending free agents coming off the books ahead of the 2024 offseason. More importantly, the Mets have the richest owner in all of baseball and someone who has never shied away in spending whatever it takes to field a competitive ball club in Steve Cohen. After buying the team ahead of the 2021 season, Cohen spent over $100m in yearly salary to push the Mets towards a Playoff berth in 2022. Most expect the contract for Soto to come in around the $550-$600m mark, but Cohen would be the first owner to push that total closer to $700m without much issue. Soto has had a year playing for the Yankees organization and has developed a sense of comfort in the Bronx, but if Cohen offers him 650 million reasons to move to Queens, the number would be hard to turn down for any player, especially one under Boras. New York has plenty of its own free agents to work out new contracts with as well, including Sean Manea, Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker.
Alonso has been with the Mets since entering the major leagues and has been one of the best power hitters in all of baseball since making his debut. Before the 2024 season began, it was rumored the Mets offered him an extension that would be worth over $150m, but Alonso seemingly declined the offer and went into the season banking on himself. While his stats would appear impressive, Alonso struggled through much of the regular season and could have affected his worth in a negative way. As he is also a Boras client, his agent will assuredly point to the prior seasons of production to show the Mets, and other interested suitors, why Alonso still deserves a market-price deal.
Manea became the ace of the Mets rotation after Kodai Senga was lost to injury and will now opt out of his contract in search of a bigger payday. While the Mets will first be focused on Soto and Alonso, the team won’t let Manea walk without a fight and will probably offer him a premium to stay in New York after becoming a fan favorite. Winker was a trade deadline acquisition, but also became beloved by Mets fans and has stated he would love to resign with the Mets if given the opportunity. He will also be a desired return for New York, but there are also a number of designated hitter options to find in the free agency pool.
There are plenty of other free agents that could have a large impact on the results of 2025, as ace Corbin Burnes will be a free agent after spending the season with the Baltimore Orioles. His contract could come anywhere between $300-$400m, with the Orioles set to make a push to keep its best pitcher but needing to prove it will offer the money needed to attract the biggest names in MLB. Baltimore has a new ownership group that has promised it will spend more than the previous regime to roster a competitive squad, but this will be the group’s first test to put its money where its mouth is.
The Mets will also be contenders for Burnes’ services, especially if Soto decides to stay with the Yankees or depart for a team other than both New York franchises. Having Cohen is the biggest advantage the Mets will bring into any negotiations and it's what landed prized free agents such as Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in the past. In the event the Mets are able to land both Soto and Burnes, the team would immediately vault into the top contenders for the 2025 World Series.
Other names that will be highly sought after in free agency include Atlanta Braves pitcher Max Fried, San Francisco Giants ace Blake Snell, Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker, Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman and Dodgers trade deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty. All should receive large contracts to either stay or move on from their current teams, but will most likely have to wait for the markets of Soto and Burnes to form before receiving much interest from clubs. How free agency plays out this winter will have a large effect on the odds for which team is most likely to take home the 2025 World Series, a race the Dodgers currently lead on DraftKings at +400, followed by the Yankees at +700.
