With both New York franchises leading its respective divisions along with the San Diego Padres out west, the odds for each team to maintain its early advantage vary across multiple operators.
While the MLB season is still quite young in 2025, plenty of teams have gotten off to hot starts and propelled itself to the forefront of its respective division, including the New York Yankees, New York Mets and San Diego Padres. The two Empire State squads were aligned through much of the offseason, as outfielder Juan Soto departed the Yankees after one season to sign with the Mets on a 15-year, $765m contract. New York’s American League (AL) side replaced Soto by bringing in talent such as Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Max Fried, hoping to create more depth along its lineup and starting rotation.
Unfortunately, the Yankees were hit by the injury bug quite early on, as ace starter Gerrit Cole, reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil and ascending young talent Clarke Schmidt will all be out for varying lengths of this season, including the entirety of 2025 for Cole. Despite all these circumstances, the Yankees are still leading the AL East division by 0.5 game over the Toronto Blue Jays while generating a record of 9-7 up to this point. While not dominant by any means, the Yankees have gotten fantastic contributions from Goldschmidt, Fried and franchise-grown shortstop Anthony Volpe, who is debuting a new “torpedo” bat this season which features the barrel shifted lower than normal.
On bet365, New York has odds of +130 to maintain its lead through the remainder of the regular season, followed closely behind by the Boston Red Sox at +300 and the Baltimore Orioles at +410. Boston made a number of moves this offseason in hopes of closing the talent gap between itself and the Yankees, including the additions of ace left-hander Garrett Crochet, third baseman Alex Bregman and young starter Walker Buehler. With a record of just 8-10 to start the season, however, the Red Sox have failed to properly live up to the expectations set upon the franchise in the early days of 2025.
At +300, bet365 still places decent faith in Boston to catch the Yankees and take the division crown for the first time in over five years, but New York will eventually see the return of Schmidt, Gil and slugger Giancarlo Stanton, reinforcing what has already shown to be an above average roster. Baltimore, Toronto (+500) and Tampa Bay (+1000) all contain enough talent to win the AL East also, but it's more likely this remains a two-horse race between New York and Boston all the way through September.
For the National League (NL)’s franchise from Queens, the Mets are listed at +115 on bet365 to hold its first-place standing in the NL East over both the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, having already produced a record of 11-5 this season. New York’s success has been largely a product of its pitching staff, as both the starting rotation and bullpen feature earned run averages (ERAs) under 3.00. While many are expecting pitchers such as Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Griffin Canning to regress in short time, the Mets rotation will only improve once Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas return from their respective stints on the injured list.
Philadelphia, listed at +120, has not fallen far behind New York in either the standings or in odds from various sportsbooks, compiling a record of 9-7 despite an offense that has failed to achieve typical production up to this point. With a lineup that includes Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos and JT Realmuto, it would not be surprising in the slightest to see the Phillies start putting more runs on the board in short order. Featuring a starting rotation consisting of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Christopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia could certainly catch up with New York and claim its second consecutive NL East crown by season’s end.
Atlanta, holding favorable odds of +390 to win the division despite a record of 5-11, is still seen as a competitor in the NL East given its reputation as one of the more successful franchises in all of baseball since its World Series victory in 2021. The Braves will see the return of ace starting pitcher Spencer Strider on April 16, along with outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. who is recovering from his second bout with a torn ACL. If the Braves can reclaim the form it displayed in 2021, 2022 and 2023, there is no lead large enough for New York to hold off its Atlanta rival throughout the entirety of 2025.
Out west, the San Diego Padres have extended its lead in the NL West division over both the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, with the latter holding odds of -800 to claim the division throne once again. Even with Los Angeles sitting 2.5 games behind San Diego for the division lead at the time of writing, the Dodgers’ roster is loaded with talent across the board, even while dealing with injuries to Blake Snell and Freddie Freeman. Los Angeles has not been poor by any means either, generating a record of 12-6 and showing no signs of failing to meet the immense expectations set forth by those around the league.
The Padres odds of +650 actually show signs of respect from bet365, clearly not downplaying the tremendous start San Diego has achieved up to this point in the season, unlike the Giants which are listed at +2000, even behind the Arizona Diamondbacks at +1600. San Diego has seen incredible talent walk out the door in recent years, including Soto, Snell, Josh Hader and Tanner Scott, but has remained strong enough to still compile a record of 14-3 during 2025. It will be difficult for any team to surpass Los Angeles this season, even outside of the NL West, but if any team has shown the capability to take down the Goliath Dodgers, it has been the Padres both in the regular season and Playoffs.
