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Can Houston and Denver pull off first round upsets?

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After Golden State clinched the seven seed in the Western conference with a win over Memphis, the Warriors are already favored over the Rockets on sportsbooks such as FanDuel.

Following the first set of NBA Play-In tournament action, two more postseason series have now been determined, as the Golden State Warriors prepare to take on the Houston Rockets as the Western conference’s seventh seed, while the Orlando Magic will face the Boston Celtics over in the East. The Warriors were able to advance past the Memphis Grizzlies despite a hard fought effort from a determined Grizzlies squad, with ownership having moved on from head coach Taylor Jenkins less than three weeks prior to the postseason. Golden State has been red hot since trading for Jimmy Butler in February, as a revitalized Steph Curry has helped the Warriors clinch a first round series with the Rockets. 

Over the course of his decorated career, Curry has achieved a record of 4-0 against Houston in the Playoffs, never failing to knock the Rockets out of postseason contention. Houston is a completely different team from the rosters that Curry ended the hopes of on numerous occasions, having generated a record of 52-30 this season behind youthful talent such as Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. The Rockets were also able to fend off franchises such as the Los Angeles Lakers, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers from claiming the two-seed in the Western conference, now holding home court advantage in any matchup on its way to the Conference Finals. 

Golden State’s trio of Curry, Butler and Draymond Green, along with head coach Steve Kerr, have enormous amounts of postseason experience, with Curry and Green winning four titles during their tenure with the franchise. Butler has played in two NBA Finals without having won a championship up to this point, creating a sense of unrivaled determination to finally claim the glory of being the top team in all of basketball. 

Houston lacks similar experience outside of point guard Fred VanVleet and head coach Ime Udoka, who helped lead the Boston Celtics to a NBA Finals appearance, resulting in a loss against Golden State in 2021-2022. VanVleet won the championship with the Toronto Raptors in 2018-2019, surpassing Golden State in the final round following injuries to both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. Neither player is rostered by the Warriors currently, but the new “big three” of Golden State may be all that’s needed to advance past Houston. 

On FanDuel, the Warriors hold favored odds of -188 to reach the second round of the postseason, while Houston is a +158 underdog despite having home court advantage throughout. With the history Curry holds over the franchise and the relative inexperience of its roster, it's not shocking to see the Rockets listed as underdogs even with such an impressive resume during 2024-2025. Perhaps the youthfulness and energy of the Rockets will be too much for Golden State, while Udoka could figure out a way to put the clamps on Curry, given his reputation for being a defensively-minded leader. It remains more likely Curry, Butler and Green continue their path to a possible NBA Finals appearance, but the Rockets have been casting doubts aside all season and are probably itching to hit the court with Golden State. 

Speaking of the Denver Nuggets, the franchise has already lost its favored odds over the Clippers in the two’s first round series beginning on April 19, dropping to +100 while Los Angeles is listed at -118. Like the Grizzlies, the Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone even closer to the Playoffs than Memphis had with Jenkins, as reports have stated Malone showed too much favoritism toward veteran players. Despite allegedly disagreeing with Malone on many occasions, Nuggets GM Calvin Booth was also shown the door by ownership, leading to a complete revamp of the coaching staff just days before its series with Los Angeles tipped-off. 

However, the Nuggets still feature perhaps the greatest player in the league today with center Nikola Jokic, a three-time Most Valuable Player (MVP) and Finals MVP in 2022-2023 after leading Denver to its first title in franchise history. Jokic has been as tremendous as ever throughout 2024-2025, helping Denver secure the fourth seed in the Western conference with a record of 50-32, notably holding the tiebreaker over Los Angeles for home court advantage during the seven-game contest. 

Averaging 29.6 points per game, 12.7 rebounds, 10.2 assists and 1.8 steals, Jokic has continued his ascension toward being seen not only as the greatest player of this decade, but perhaps one of the best players in the entirety of NBA history. With three MVPs, a title and the Finals MVP award for said championship under his resume already, it would not be a shock to see Jokic enter the top-10 players of all-time discussion with the addition of a second championship. With odds of +100 heading into his series with the Clippers, though, he will need support from role players such as Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon, as Los Angeles will throw notable stars like Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Ivan Zubac at Denver, who have all been on top form throughout the second half of the regular season. 

The Western conference side of the 2024-2025 NBA postseason should be one of the more entertaining contests in recent history, as up to five franchises could plausibly state why it has a significant chance to win the championship this year. With a matchup set between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers taking place during the first round as well, all three series mentioned have the possibility of reaching a deciding seventh game, given the talent that will be showcased on either side.

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