The Cleveland Cavaliers began the second round by falling to the Indiana Pacers at home, while Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon made a last second three to shock Oklahoma City.
Heading into the 2024-2025 NBA Playoffs, it was seen as a near guarantee the Oklahoma City Thunder and Cleveland Cavaliers would, at the very least, be playing for the opportunity to compete in the NBA Finals this season. Each franchise proved this way of thinking with dominant first round victories over the Memphis Grizzlies and Miami Heat, respectively, and advancing to take on the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers. On sportsbooks such as DraftKings, the Thunder and Cavaliers were listed at odds of -500 or even higher to reach the penultimate stage of the postseason, helping to showcase the confidence operators have in the two regular season wins leaders.
Instead, both franchises now find itself down 1-0 in each respective second round series, following the Cavaliers loss to the Pacers on May 4 by a score of 121-112 in Cleveland, while the Thunder lost to Denver 121-119 after Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon made a three-pointer with less than three seconds remaining. Cleveland’s loss comes as slightly less shocking given the Pacers handled the Milwaukee Bucks in just five games during its opening round contest, whereas Denver battled through seven games to barely surpass the Los Angeles Clippers. Also working against the Cavaliers is Miami, which appeared more inclined for the 2024-2025 season to come to an end rather than battle Cleveland for multiple games, with an exceptionally poor game four performance capping off a relatively embarrassing series for the Heat.
Witnessing the speed, determination and shooting ability Indiana offers may have taken the Cavaliers off guard, and DraftKings still shows plenty of confidence in Cleveland given the franchise’s odds of -205 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals despite being down 1-0 already. There was a clear discrepancy in three-point shooting throughout game one as well, with Indiana converting on 52.8% of its attempts from deep, while Cleveland was only able to obtain a three-point shooting percentage of 23.7%. While this statistic is still a positive for Indiana and exemplifies its perimeter defense, the Cavaliers have plenty of shooters on the floor who will not go cold for the entirety of the second round matchup.
Cleveland was also playing without starting point guard Darius Garland, whose eventual return to the series may loom as the largest x-factor hanging over the heads of Cavaliers supporters. If the 25-year-old guard fails to return against the Pacers with full health, the +170 odds for Indiana to reach its second consecutive Eastern Conference Finals could shift drastically before long. Assuming Garland returns to his position as Donovan Mitchell’s backcourt running mate, Cleveland should still possess the talent necessary to overcome the Pacers, even after an eye-opening game one result.
In the Cavaliers’ defense as well, the franchise was not the only top Eastern Conference contender to be upset at home to open the second round, as the New York Knicks made a miraculous comeback against the Boston Celtics, which came into the series as co-favorites to win the NBA title this season. Boston, standing as the reigning NBA champion from 2023-2024, was forced into overtime by New York and most likely should have lost in regulation had point guard Jalen Brunson converted a short floater attempt with almost no time remaining. Once the additional time period began, Knicks forward Mikal Bridges completely took over the game, playing tremendous defense while Celtics stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown could generate little on the offensive end. Similar to Cleveland, operators such as DraftKings still favor the Celtics quite considerably over New York with odds of -340, as underlying metrics seem to support Boston’s case for advancing past the Knicks.
For a victory that required New York to comeback from a 20-point deficit and outscore Boston 8-5 during the overtime period, witnessing the Celtics shoot 25% from three-point range is not a positive indication a performance such as game one is repeatable, given the superior shooting talent Boston typically carries. On the other hand, it appears Tatum is compromised due to a bone bruise in his right wrist that forced him to miss game three of the Celtics’ opening round matchup with the Orlando Magic, although Boston was still able to defeat the Magic with relative ease in five games. The reigning NBA champion also appears hampered by a possible ankle injury suffered during March of this year, although Tatum was able to return from the injury prior to the conclusion of the regular season.
Whatever is bothering the star needs to be seen as an opportunity on New York’s end, as the Celtics have been a well-oiled basketball machine for over a year, but are beginning to show cracks in the foundation of its starting lineup. At +270 on DraftKings to advance to its first Eastern Conference Finals in 25 years, the Knicks will need even more from stars such as Jalen Brunson, Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, who all played over 40 minutes on May 5 due to the overtime period. If New York’s stars shine their brightest against Boston, NBA fans could be in for yet another classic between the two historic franchises.
Over in the West, the Thunder have to be kicking itself after allowing Denver to comeback from being down double-digits through the vast majority of the game, now finding itself down 1-0 in a series it was favored by nearly -800 to win by DraftKings prior to the first matchup. Following Oklahoma City taking a 104-95 lead with just under seven minutes remaining, the Nuggets would go on to close the game with a 26-15 run, including Gordon’s three with 2.8 seconds left in regulation.
The matchup also featured the two most likely candidates to win the NBA’s 2024-2025 Most Valuable Player (MVP) award in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, who has been honored with the award three times throughout his career. Gilgeous-Alexander should take home his first MVP this season based on the opinion of most voters, but Jokic proved why he is the most dominant player in the NBA currently with a game one statline of 42 points, 22 rebounds, six assists and two blocks.
Even with odds of +235 to advance to the Western Conference Finals as compared to the Thunder at -290 on DraftKings, there may be an undeniable sense that Jokic cannot be stopped when playing at this high of a level. Denver was not even supposed to defeat the Clippers according to most operators prior to the first round, as the Nuggets fired head coach Michael Malone just days before the postseason began. Whether or not that served as a jumpstart of sorts for the roster remains to be seen, but as long as Jokic is performing to levels such as this, there is no telling how the remainder of Denver’s second round series with Oklahoma City will play out.
