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NL Cy Young race heats up as summer months draw near

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Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes currently leads the way in odds to take home the honor on FanDuel, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Zack Wheeler also showcasing dominance in 2025.

Through the first two months of the 2025 MLB season, there have been few surprises as to which teams quickly pulled out ahead of the pack with impressive starts, while similar results have also been found in the National League (NL) Cy Young race, as Paul Skenes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Zack Wheeler lead the way in odds to take home the honor. Each would represent a first time victor of the award, given that Skenes and Yamamoto only debuted during the 2024 season and Wheeler has obtained two runner-up finishes throughout his career. Despite only having one year of service under their belts, Skenes and Yamamoto have quickly taken the baseball world by storm, as the Pittsburgh Pirates phenom has arguably become the new face of MLB while Yamamoto helped lead the Los Angeles Dodgers to a World Series in 2024. 

Having received a $325m contract over 12 years to come over from Japan and join the Dodgers rotation, Yamamoto certainly had large expectations to live up to, and was unable to pitch through the entirety of last season after suffering an injury that cost him around two months. Once the calendar hit October, however, Yamamoto began to showcase the elite arsenal that had multiple franchises salivating at the idea of bringing the 26-year-old on board, generating a 1.72 earned run average (ERA) over his final three Playoff starts after allowing five runs to the San Diego Padres in his postseason debut. Skenes and the Pirates were unable to reach the postseason during 2024 and most likely will find similar fate this season as well, but this did not stop the 23-year-old from compiling an 11-3 record in his rookie season to go along with a 1.96 ERA and 170 strikeouts across 133 innings. 

The outstanding debut earned Skenes NL Rookie of the Year honors and has managed to transfer over into 2025, as his 4-5 record does little to help showcase a 2.15 ERA and 77 strikeouts in just over 75 innings. On FanDuel, he is currently listed as the favorite to take home his first NL Cy Young award with odds of +145, even as Yamamoto continues to arguably outproduce Skenes with an ERA of 1.97, 6-3 record and 75 strikeouts in 64 innings. The main factor most likely affecting operators such as FanDuel is the difference in talent surrounding the two ace pitchers, as Yamamoto being backed by a potent Dodgers lineup is nothing compared to the bottom-tier level talent Pittsburgh features around its franchise star. 

While Los Angeles routinely sends out future Hall-of-Famers such as Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, the Pirates best offensive stars are Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, both of whom are above-average players but would be towards the bottom of the Dodgers pecking order. At +320, though, it is extremely tempting to take Yamamoto at such odds, given that health-related concerns are the only obstacle to the Japanese sensation putting together an incredible 2025 campaign. Los Angeles had planned to implement a six-man rotation to help ease the burden on its pitching staff, but the idea was unfortunately thrown out the window when hurlers such as Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Roki Sasaki all hit the injured list. The lack of additional rest has done little to stop Yamamoto from pitching up to his $325m price tag, helping to silence any critics that questioned Los Angeles for paying such a premium for a relatively unproven talent. 

While the production Yamamoto generated in Japan was remarkable, transitioning to the MLB has been no easy task for any Japanese player outside of Ohtani, and even he has required two major surgeries in less than a decade. The 2025 season has been Yamamoto’s time to shine, though, and his odds of +320 to win the NL Cy Young award this season may only become even less favorable for bettors as the year wears on. Skenes should continue pitching up to Cy Young-level form as well, creating quite a race between the two young phenoms, with Wheeler representing the final piece to an unbelievable trio of aces with odds of +500 himself. Up to this point in 2025, Wheeler has accumulated a record of 6-2 with a 2.96 ERA and 94 strikeouts in 76 innings, easily being seen as one of the best and most consistent pitchers in all of baseball since joining the Philadelphia Phillies in 2020. 

Over his six-year stretch with Philadelphia, Wheeler has a record of 65-34, an ERA of just 2.94 and close to 1,000 strikeouts over 905 innings, becoming an undeniable face after feeling under appreciated by the New York Mets throughout his tenure leading up to free agency. Now with the rival Phillies, Wheeler has constantly proved why New York should have paid its home-grown talent, and could be in line for the first Cy Young award of his career if Skenes or Yamamoto experience a dip in production. Standing in third place at the time of writing, however, it will be difficult for Wheeler to surpass his younger counterparts given the similar success each is expected to garner. Between the three aces, though, fans of baseball are going to be treated to an unbelievable Cy Young race in the NL, as Skenes and Yamamoto especially will be dueling for years to come. 

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