Based on odds from operators such as FanDuel, the chances of Indiana upsetting the Thunder seem extremely low, highlighted by +530 underdog odds while Oklahoma City sits at -750.
Following a game six victory over the New York Knicks on May 31, the Indiana Pacers were able to clinch the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals since 2000, when the Reggie Miller-led team fell to Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and the Los Angeles Lakers in six games. Now spearheaded by point guard Tyrese Haliburton and Eastern Conference Finals Most Valuable Player (MVP) Pascal Siakam, the Pacers have used incredible runs over the past two years to finally make it back to the sport’s greatest stage. The 2023-2024 Indiana squad was swept by the eventual NBA Champion Boston Celtics, but this year’s team advanced past the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks all without playing the maximum seven games.
Haliburton has been terrific throughout the postseason, reclaiming his reputation as one of the best players in the entire NBA after falling slightly due to injuries that plagued him throughout much of the past calendar year. With clutch performances against the Cavaliers and Knicks, especially, the former Sacramento Kings draft pick has helped to prove why Indiana could become a mainstay at the top of the Eastern conference for years to come. As the Celtics now have to wait out a torn achilles injury for franchise star Jayson Tatum, the Pacers could be in line to make repeated trips to the NBA Finals after going a quarter-century without an appearance. Standing in front of Indiana’s first title in franchise history are the Oklahoma City Thunder and point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the only guards most likely ranked ahead of Haliburton on any list from those around the league.
Gilgeous-Alexander has already been named MVP for the 2024-2025 season, now looking to put the cherry on top of a near perfect year for the former Los Angeles Clipper. The Kentucky Wildcats product has carried over his tremendous regular season form into the Playoffs, supported by exceptional role players such as Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso. The Thunder bench runs even deeper than those stars as well, providing head coach Mark Daigneault with a myriad of options in case any of his starters happen to be underperforming. Indiana and head coach Rick Carlisle are not without depth also, as notable contributors such as Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Myles Turner and Obi Toppin all find ways to have their names called night in and night out.
Despite the talent portrayed on the Pacer’s side, Oklahoma City are overwhelming favorites on most sportsbooks heading into the NBA Finals - beginning on June 5 - including -750 on FanDuel while Indiana is listed at +530 to pull off the massive upset. While odds such as these were not as readily accessible as they are in 2025 when Miller was preparing to take on Bryant and O’Neal, it’s fair to assume Indiana would have been listed with similar odds heading into that matchup as well. Even with Oklahoma City having been pushed to the brink by the Denver Nuggets and only defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in one fewer game than the Pacers dispatched of the Knicks, oddsmakers heavily favor the Thunder given the roster’s immense talent.
General Manager Sam Presti has done an outstanding job of compiling talent from either other franchises or through the draft, using the trade of Paul George to Los Angeles in order to facilitate much of this season’s roster. Receiving Gilgeous-Alexander in return for George was the obvious victory for Presti, but even he would most likely be unable to truthfully say he expected this version of the talented point guard to arrive at some point. Like Oklahoma City, the Pacers foresaw Haliburton becoming a star in the league while he was with Sacramento, using Sabonis and Hield to acquire its new face of the franchise before sending off multiple draft picks to the Toronto Raptors in return for Siakam.
Hiring Carlisle may have been the smartest move made by Indiana’s front office despite the Haliburton transaction, given his pedigree as an NBA champion with the Dallas Mavericks and the way he has revitalized a once-muddling franchise. As recently as 2019-2020, the Pacers seemed to be destined for NBA purgatory where the franchise had enough quality to reach the postseason, but never to the point it could genuinely challenge the very best of the Eastern conference. Instead, Haliburton and company are now on their way to Oklahoma City in preparation for game one of the NBA Finals less than five years later.
The turnaround for both franchises creates a remarkable storyline heading into the Finals no matter where the odds may stand, as it is now guaranteed there will be a first-time champion on either side. Look for Indiana to certainly keep the series interesting and each game entertaining, but also for the Thunder to eventually cash in on Presti’s long-term vision for the franchise and finally take home his first title as GM.
