Ahead of the pay-per-view event scheduled for June 7, oddsmakers are attempting to discover which fighters are receiving the most confidence from fans and bettors of the UFC.

UFC 316, set for June 7 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, promises to be an electrifying pay-per-view event headlined by two high-stakes championship bouts. The main event features a bantamweight title rematch between champion Merab Dvalishvili and former title holder Sean O’Malley, while the co-main event sees women’s bantamweight champion Julianna Peña defending her title against Kayla Harrison. Odds below are offered by bet365 and may have shifted following the time of writing. 

Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili (-275) vs. Sean O’Malley (+225) – Bantamweight Championship

The main event is a rematch for the UFC bantamweight title, pitting Merab Dvalishvili against Sean O’Malley. Their first encounter at UFC 306 in September 2024 saw Dvalishvili dominate with relentless pressure, chain wrestling and over 10 minutes of control time, securing a unanimous decision victory to claim the title. Dvalishvili, now 19-4, has since defended his belt against Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311, showcasing his elite cardio and grappling prowess. O’Malley, with an 18-2-0-1 record, is a striking savant known for his flashy knockouts, but he struggled to find answers for Dvalishvili’s grappling in their first fight.

The odds reflect Dvalishvili’s dominance in the first fight, but O’Malley’s +225 price is tempting for those believing in his ability to adapt. Dvalishvili’s game plan will likely mirror their first fight: apply pressure, secure takedowns and control the fight on the ground. He averages 6.7 takedowns per 15 minutes and stuffed 13 of 15 takedown attempts against Nurmagomedov, proving his defensive wrestling is elite. 

O’Malley, however, has a four-inch reach advantage (72” vs. 68”) and is a lethal striker, landing 7.5 significant strikes per minute. If he can keep the fight standing, his knockout power could be a game-changer. Looks into his training camp suggest O’Malley has been sharpening his grappling defense, but he’ll need to show significant improvement to counter Dvalishvili’s relentless pace.  

Dvalishvili to win by decision at -110 appears to be an intriguing wager for bettors, as his durability (never been finished in the UFC) and ability to control fights make this a safer play than the moneyline. O’Malley went the distance in their first fight, and with Merab’s low finishing rate - only 3 knockouts in 19 wins - a decision remains likely for June 7. For risk-takers, O’Malley by KO/TKO at +400 offers value given his striking edge and potential to land a fight-ending shot.  

Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña (+500) vs. Kayla Harrison (-700) – Women’s Bantamweight Championship

The co-main event features Julianna Peña defending her women’s bantamweight title against Kayla Harrison. Peña, 12-5, is known for her grit and upset potential, famously submitting Amanda Nunes at UFC 269. Harrison, a two-time Olympic judo gold medalist and former PFL champion, boasts an 18-1 record with 13 submission victories. Her dominant UFC performances have made her a heavy favorite heading into the bout.

The wide odds reflect Harrison’s superior athleticism and grappling, but Peña’s durability and heart make her a lively underdog for the championship fight at UFC 316. Harrison’s judo background and physicality give her a massive edge on the ground, as she averages 3.2 takedowns per 15 minutes and has the strength to dominate Peña in the clinch or on the mat. Peña, however, is a scrappy fighter with solid boxing and a knack for surviving tough spots. 

Her upset over Nunes showed she thrives as an underdog, but Harrison’s technical superiority and power are on another level. Harrison by decision at +120 could pay dividends for bettors, given Peña’s durability and Kayla’s controlled ground-and-pound approach. For those seeking an upset, Peña by decision (+700) offers huge value given her ability to hang in there and capitalize on mistakes. 

Joe Pyfer (-400) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+300) – Middleweight

Joe Pyfer, a 28-year-old knockout artist (13-3), faces veteran Kelvin Gastelum (19-9) in a middleweight clash. Pyfer’s explosive striking and four-inch reach advantage make him the favorite, while Gastelum’s experience and durability keep him in the mix. Pyfer’s recent KO over Marc-Andre Barriault highlights his finishing ability (9 KOs in 13 wins). Gastelum, however, is a tough out, with only one KO loss in his career. His technical striking and wrestling could frustrate Pyfer if the fight goes long. 

Mario Bautista (+150) vs. Patchy Mix (-175) – Bantamweight

Mario Bautista, on a seven-fight win streak, faces former Bellator champion Patchy Mix, who makes his UFC debut with a 20-1 record up to this point. Mix is favored at -175, while Bautista’s +150 offers a 40.8% chance of victory come June 7. Mix’s submission skills (13 tapouts) make him dangerous, but Bautista’s versatility and recent wins over Jose Aldo and Ricky Simon add value to his underdog price. 

While Mix’s grappling is also elite, Bautista’s well-rounded game and takedown defense could keep this as a standing contest. Bautista by decision, if one is not already sensing a common theme for these top bouts, at +250 offers great value given his ability to avoid submissions and grind out rounds.

Vicente Luque (+225) vs. Kevin Holland (-275) – Welterweight

The main card opens with Vicente Luque (22-10-1) against Kevin Holland (26-11). Holland’s dynamic striking and reach advantage make him the favorite, as his experience in the octagon could also play a large factor in a potential victory over Luque. Holland’s recent win over Gunnar Nelson boosts his momentum, but Luque’s submission skills (12 tapouts) will still be a threat for the popular welterweight throughout the match. 

Holland’s 13 KO wins and 77-inch reach give him an edge standing, but Luque’s crisp striking and grappling could exploit Holland’s defensive lapses. Still, to finally add some excitement to the betting preview, Holland by KO/TKO at +150 is a solid wager due to his length and power possibly overwhelming Luque, who’s alternated wins and losses recently as well.