We break down the current NBA title odds to find the best value bets.
The current NBA title odds would lead bettors to believe the playoffs are a six-week event being held only to bring them to a predetermined finish on June 6, the Denver Nuggets and Boston Celtics facing off for the right to be crowned champions of this season. The argument cannot be strongly made that any of the teams competing with those two squads can halt this seemingly unstoppable outcome. However, that does not mean there isn't still value to be found in the current NBA betting landscape.
With the Los Angeles Clippers’ game one victory over the Dallas Mavericks, the series spread has now shifted to reflect the Mavericks as underdogs to come out victorious, despite being favored before Sunday’s loss. On the William Hill Sportsbook app at the time of writing, bettors could get Dallas at odds of +118, a stark difference from being over -150 favorites before the series began.
Kawhi Leonard, LA’s best player and more importantly best on-ball defender, missed game one and it is unclear if he will be available throughout the series. The Mavericks will still have Luka Doncic gearing up at full strength coming off an inefficient 33-point performance. Getting the Mavericks now at plus money is one of the better opportunities following typical NBA game one over-reactions.
While the NBA Finals matchup is set in stone for some as mentioned previously, there is still value to be found in the most likely matchup before games are won and odds can change. NBA Finals MVP, for example, is something where the best value is going to be had now compared to later.
Last year’s Finals MVP Nikola Jokic’s odds are currently set to just over 3-1 to take home the award again on sportsbooks including Caesars, William Hill and BetMGM. As Jokic would most likely be the only player on the Nuggets to win the award and is debatably the league’s best player, his odds for winning will only drop as Denver progresses through the playoffs. Jayson Tatum, the Boston Celtics leadman, sits just above him at nearly +275. The better value, though, is his teammate Jaylen Brown at close to 10-1 odds.
In 2022 when the Celtics lost to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, Brown outscored and outrebounded Tatum through all six games while also being the main on-ball defender of Steph Curry. If Brown can step up and have a similar performance in this year's Finals assuming Boston makes it through an extremely weak Eastern conference, his odds are probably the best value to be found for the expected Denver-Boston matchup.
Bettors would have to hope Boston and/or Denver actually make it to the Finals for these bets to become possible. But, looking at the current odds for each team, the sportsbooks seem to think that is all but a certainty.
Other value bettors should look for is in player props, especially those whose teams are facing injuries to star players. Look for the Philadelphia 76ers to use more of Paul Reed either with Joel Embiid (Philadelphia’s leading scorer and 2023 NBA MVP) or in place of him to help with rebounding in their series against the New York Knicks. Reed’s rebounding and points props should remain in single digits as long as Embiid is playing, but his chances to go over on both statistics remain high as long as Embiid is hampered by a meniscus injury.
Also, Brook Lopez is being asked to do much more on the defensive end with Giannis Antetokounmpo out for the Milwaukee Bucks. It is unlikely Antetokounmpo will play in the next couple of games, let alone return at all. Lopez’s block and rebound props are high value as he is the only current starter for Milwaukee used to guarding players down low where rebounds and blocks are gathered, as opposed to the perimeter.
Player prop lines and MVP odds can change quickly for sportsbooks, so opportunities to find value are scarce. Most of these plays should be available while the first round of the NBA playoffs continues throughout the week but look for series bets to change as teams respond to their game one performance.
