Differing lines could reflect a shakeup at the top of the draft order.
Fanatics has reported odds shifts and popular draft bets over the last week, with some seeming to indicate value being placed on previously underrated positions. In an economy where edge rushers, quarterbacks and offensive tackles make upwards of $30m per season in salary, teams might be attempting to find cheaper alternatives for other positions of premium through this year’s draft.
Byron Murphy, for example, has skyrocketed up betting boards to be selected ninth overall by the Chicago Bears. Odds of +1400 as of April 17 have now dropped all the way to +175. Murphy, a defensive tackle who played for Texas, represents an opportunity for teams to fight against a growing salary for his position.
Just this offseason, multiple defensive tackles such as Chris Jones, Christain Wilkins and Justin Madubuike signed contracts that eclipsed $24m per season. Murphy’s salary for the 2024 season is projected at around a sixth of that price if he is taken ninth, which makes it highly likely these new odds are trustworthy.
Also of note are the odds changes to the two quarterbacks, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix, who are seen as a tier below the four quarterbacks essentially guaranteed to go within the top 10 (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and JJ McCarthy).
Penix Jr. is now projected to be a first round lock of sorts, having his draft position odds of being selected in the first 32 picks change from +100 to -300. He has suffered from multiple season-ending injuries and his age, he turns 24 years old on May 8, has scared many teams as there is not much room for development.
Nix, on the other hand, only has +750 odds to be selected by the Los Angeles Rams who are sat at 19 overall. This time of year, rumors about quarterbacks going higher than expected fly around the NFL circle faster than planes in the sky and should be taken with extreme caution. In the case of Nix especially, the Rams already have a proven starter in Matthew Stafford and saw future hall-of-famer Aaron Donald retire this offseason, leaving a gaping hole in its defense. If that is not enough Fanatics has also reported the odds of Xavier Worthy, a wide receiver out of Texas, being selected by the Rams to have moved to +850, nearly the same as Nix.
One of the more absurd odds changes Fanatics reported was the Chargers first pick being a quarterback. Somehow, quite incredulously, these odds have moved from +15000 to +750. Unless the Chargers take a quarterback only to trade him to a different team immediately, those odds will not hit. The Chargers have a 26-year-old phenom as quarterback in Justin Herbert, who even more importantly signed a $262m contract less than a calendar year ago. While new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh would probably love to take his college quarterback in McCarthy, it would border on coaching malpractice to make a decision such as what these odds reflect.
The odds changes Fanatics has reported do make sense in terms of the history of the draft. No time ever has a defensive player not gone within the top 10 selections of the draft, which is why the changes for Murphy being taken at nine and defensive end from UCLA Laiatu Latu, the new favorite to go eighth overall (+200), are very favorable to end up occurring. With that same idea, though, there have only ever been three NFL drafts that saw more than four quarterbacks go in the first round. With Penix Jr. and Nix on the outside looking in as the fifth and sixth-rated players at their position by most experts, it is more unlikely their new odds of going earlier than expected actually hit for bettors.
